CryptoQuant’s latest work frames this phase as a maturing bear market rather than a new bull. Their indicators cluster around the same message: long-term holders are distributing into strength, exchange inflows are creeping higher, and miner balances are trending down as operational selling resumes. That combination historically appears before the “real” leg of a bear, when price finally catches up with weakening fundamentals.
Price action fits the pattern. $BTC trades well above levels that on-chain models flag as “value,” even after multiple corrections. Volatility compresses, liquidity pockets thin out, and each rally is led by higher-beta names rather than organic spot demand.
For traders, the question is how to turn it into an asymmetric opportunity. Best entries during late-cycle bears align when price nears long-term cost basis, derivatives leverage flushes, funding turns neutral to negative, and exchange reserves drop.
Split the strategy into three layers. First, run small continuous DCA to avoid over-timing. Second, pre-define aggressive buy zones in “extreme bear” territory. Third, size dry powder for a fear spike like liquidation cascades or macro shocks. That structure removes emotion and lets data dictate scaling.
The optimal entry is a zone where fear, forced selling, and undervaluation overlap. CryptoQuant’s message: that zone lies ahead. Stay liquid, patient, and rule-driven.
