Bitcoin trades around 67k today, down ~1% in 24 hours and 32% from last year. Extreme fear grips the market after February's brutal selloff erased hundreds of billions in market cap. BTC remains trapped in a tight $60-70K consolidation band, where sellers cap every upside attempt with precision.
Fear and Greed Index sits deep in extreme fear territory, driven by six key signals all flashing caution. Bitcoin dominance climbs to 56% as capital flees altcoins, which fell 1.5-3x worse than BTC. Volatility index spikes alongside surging Google Trends for "Bitcoin crash" and price manipulation queries. Short-term holders dumped 28,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss this week.
Technical structure shows binary outcomes for this week's close. Bulls need a decisive break and daily close above $70K to invalidate bearish momentum. This targets $80K resistance next, requiring ETF inflow reversal and fading liquidation cascades. RSI divergence hints at potential exhaustion selling if volume supports.
Bears control below $70K. Weekly close under $65K opens $60K zone, aligning with prior swing lows and 50% retracement from November highs. Sub-$60K accelerates toward $55K, where 200-week moving average defends. Macro pressures from higher-for-longer rates and rising real yields squeeze risk assets.
4-year halving cycle context adds weight. Post-peak corrections retrace 30-50% before accumulation resumes 12-18 months pre-halving. Prolonged $70K rejection risks multi-quarter bear market if macro stays hostile. Miner stress from post-halving revenue and energy costs compounds downside.
Friday's CPI data and $2.7B options expiry act as catalysts. Strong inflation reinforces rate hike odds, hitting BTC hardest. Weak data might spark risk-on rotation but needs follow-through buying.
