Bitcoin trades around $67k today, up ~1% from yesterday after probing $62,000 lows earlier this month. This places $BTC still 30% off its 2026 peak near $96,500, a correction tied to paused Fed rate cuts and a firm dollar index at 108. Trading volume remains subdued at $45 billion daily, down 40% from January peaks.
Macro factors weigh heavy. Elevated U.S. rates above 4.5% crimp liquidity for risk assets, with BTC's beta of 1.8 amplifying equity market pullbacks. Geopolitical tensions and softening global PMIs add caution, pushing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to extreme fear at 22. Yet ETF net outflows eased to $250 million last week, the slowest in months.
On-chain metrics tell a bullish undercurrent story. Long-term holders added 15,000 BTC last week, per Glassnode data, while exchange reserves drop to 2.4 million coins, hinting at reduced selling pressure. Whale wallets above 1,000 BTC grew 2% month-over-month, framing BTC as a portfolio hedge amid fiat debasement fears.
History often favored buyers here. Post-2022's fear troughs below 20, BTC rallied 300% within six months on average. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue stacking, with total corporate holdings now over 450,000 BTC. A Fed pivot to 25bps cuts by mid-year could unlock $120,000 targets, aligning with halving cycle patterns. But will this be enough to break 4 year psychology? And if Iran gets attacked by the US all bets are off anyway... So remain cautious.
Key levels: $66k support holds firm; $72k resistance eyes breakout. Volatility suits patient accumulators over leveraged traders. Stay positioned, watch the data.
