Saylor and CEO Phong Le held an investor call today addressing the panic: with BTC at ~$62K and MSTR down 52% from 2025 highs, is there a price where they finally sell Bitcoin? Answer: No breaking point, even at $8K.
Call Takeaways
• Saylor preached "infinite conviction"—Bitcoin is "digital capital" held for generations. No forced sell triggers: no mNAV covenant (0.9x now), no liquidity issues, no index deadlines. $2.25B cash covers debt through 2028 even if BTC hits zero. They just bought 1,287 BTC in Jan at $90K avg.
• Key Saylor quote: "If Bitcoin goes to $8K, we HODL harder. Balance sheet built for asymmetry—unlimited upside, finite downside." Q4's $12.4B unrealized loss? "Noise." Their 713,502 BTC (3% supply, $76K avg cost) is perfect positioning.
Stress Test at $8K
• Holdings: 713,502 BTC × $8K = $5.7B (vs $54B cost → 89% loss, $48B hit)
• Debt: $4.5B convertibles (2028+), 2x covered by cash. No margin calls.
• Software: $500M+ annual rev, profitable ex-BTC.
• NAV: Trades 20-25% below BTC NAV now; $8K widens it, but rebound closes gap.
2x levered via debt/equity, no recourse loans. Market cap tanks, dilution ramps via ATMs—but zero forced BTC sales.
Odds of $8K (87% Drawdown)
• Bear (25%): Macro crash (recession, Iran, ETF bleeds) → $15K adjusted 2022 lows, panic to $8K. MSTR buys more.
• Base (65%): Bottoms 65-70K on RSI oversold + halving dynamics.
• Bull (10%): $90K+ rebound on flows.
Hitting $8K? 15-20% odds in 2026. Needs 70K/65K/50K breaks in thin liquidity. Post-halving rarer than 2018/2022 85% crashes. MSTR survives.
Call kills "MSTR forces BTC lower" narrative. Built for $8K+. Watch ETF flows: green → $90K, red → 65K test.
