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›Guides

Guides

Market Cap Parity Simulator – BlockViz

›Market Cap Parity Simulator

Market Cap Parity Simulator

Estimate a token’s price if it had or moved toward another token’s market cap.

Interpretation

What problem this visualization solves

Market cap comparisons are often framed as naive statements like
“If ETH had BTC’s market cap, ETH would be $X.”

That framing hides two problems:

Assets already have some share of each other’s market cap
Market caps change over time, so forcing a fixed percentage can distort history

This simulator makes parity comparisons explicit, continuous, and time-aware.

What you’re looking at

You are looking at a market cap parity simulation between two assets:

(the one being simulated)

Market Cap Parity preview

Try it yourself

Market Cap Parity

Use the interactive tool to explore the same concept with your own time range and settings.

On this page

What problem this visualization solves
What you’re looking at
Understanding “path to parity” (important)
Path mode vs History mode
Actual vs simulated price
What this is (and is not)
Common misinterpretations
Key takeaways

Selecting assets
Using the parity slider
Reading the results panel
Example workflow

Asset A

Asset B (the reference / target)

The chart shows:

The actual price of Asset A (optional)
The simulated price of Asset A if it moved along a path toward Asset B’s market cap
A slider that controls how far along that path Asset A moves

The results panel translates that simulated market cap into an implied price.

Understanding “path to parity” (important)

The slider does not directly represent
“X% of the target market cap.”

It represents
X% of the path from the current state to full parity.

Example:

ETH currently has ~21% of BTC’s market cap
Full parity = 100% of BTC’s market cap
Moving the slider to 50% to parity means:

Halfway between 21% and 100%
→ ~60% of BTC’s market cap
This is also shown on the bottom right of the slider UI.

This avoids misleading results and keeps the simulation anchored in reality.

Why this matters

If the simulator forced a fixed percentage of the target market cap:

Historical comparisons would be distorted
Assets that started near parity would be misrepresented
Diverging market caps would produce artificial jumps

By simulating movement along the parity path, the tool stays consistent across time and direction (smaller → larger or larger → smaller).

Path mode vs History mode

Path mode

Path mode answers:

“What would Asset A be worth if it moved X% closer to Asset B’s market cap today?”

Uses current market caps
Slider controls progress toward parity
Best for scenario exploration and intuition-building

History mode

History mode answers:

“What would Asset A’s price have been over time if it had moved along this parity path?”

Key differences:

Uses historical market caps of both assets
Always calculates % to parity, not forced % of target
Preserves divergence and convergence over time

This avoids skewed backtests when assets started near parity and later separated.

Actual vs simulated price

You can toggle the Actual Price series:

On → Compare reality vs the simulated parity path
Off → Focus purely on the implied valuation

This is useful when the actual price visually dominates the chart or distracts from the scenario.

What this is (and is not)

This tool is:

A valuation thought experiment
A way to reason about relative scale
Useful for framing upside/downside narratives

It is not:

A price prediction
A probability model
A timing signal

Common misinterpretations

“50% to parity means 50% of BTC’s market cap”
→ ❌ No, it means halfway from current to target
“This shows where price will go”
→ ❌ It shows where price would be under a hypothetical condition
“History mode enforces parity retroactively”
→ ❌ It respects historical divergence and convergence

When this visualization is most useful

Comparing relative upside across assets
Stress-testing valuation narratives
Explaining market cap intuition to others
Understanding scale differences in bull/bear regimes

When not to use it

For short-term trading decisions
As a forecast or target price
Without understanding current market cap context

Key takeaways

Parity is a path, not a fixed percentage
The slider represents movement toward parity, not absolute dominance
History mode preserves realism across time
This is a reasoning tool, not a prediction engine

How to use

Selecting assets

You can:

Choose the simulated asset (Asset A)
Choose the target asset (Asset B)
Switch direction freely (smaller → larger or larger → smaller)

The simulator works symmetrically in both directions.

Using the parity slider

The slider controls:

0% → current market cap relationship
100% → full parity with the target
Any value in between → proportional movement along the path

Read the slider as:

“How far toward parity should Asset A move?”

Not as:

“What percentage of the target market cap should Asset A have?”

Switching between Path and History

Use Path mode when:

Exploring current scenarios
Comparing implied prices today
Thinking in static valuation terms

Use History mode when:

Exploring how parity would have played out over time
Avoiding distorted historical assumptions
Comparing divergence dynamics

Reading the results panel

The results panel summarizes:

Simulated price vs actual price
Simulated market cap vs actual market cap
Absolute and percentage differences
Start vs end of period (in History mode)

This is where you translate the visual scenario into concrete numbers.

Example workflow

A typical use case:

Select ETH as the simulated asset
Select BTC as the target asset
Start in Path mode
Move the slider to 50% to parity
Observe the implied ETH price
Switch to History mode
Compare how ETH diverged from that parity path over time

This quickly reveals how much of a valuation narrative is scale-driven versus market-driven.