Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, about $53 billion at current prices. The immediate risk is not a forced Bitcoin sale. It is a potential forced sell from passive funds if MSCI changes how it treats companies dominated by non-operating assets.

A reported MSCI simulation in May flagged names like Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake for possible index removal. If that rule is adopted, funds tracking those benchmarks could be forced to sell MSTR in the November review window.

That matters because MSTR stock is the funding engine behind the bitcoin treasury model. If index-driven selling weakens the stock and compresses its premium to NAV, Strategy could lose some flexibility to raise fresh capital and keep adding BTC at the same pace.

The key dates are September 30 for the end of consultation and October 16 for the expected decision. The real signal is not whether BTC gets dumped overnight, but whether pressure on MSTR starts to weaken the machine that has been absorbing so much bitcoin.