100B exited crypto as U.S. shutdown odds spiked to 78% on prediction markets by Jan 31. $BTC dipped below 88k, market cap shed 25-30% from peaks. Does this kill the supercycle? Short answer: No, but it forces a serious pause.

What triggered it:

Macro risk-off hit hard. Renewed geopolitics plus shutdown deadline fears sent capital fleeing speculative assets. BTC traded like levered macro beta rather than "digital gold," with 360M in long liquidations amplifying the flush.

Why supercycle holds (barely):

• ETF/corporate flows slowed, not reversed into panic selling

• 30% peak-to-trough still fits "shallower bears" pattern vs 80%+ prior cycles

• On-chain shows whales quietly accumulating 80-90k dips

Critical tests ahead:

• Shutdown resolution (odds flip fast on last-minute deals)

• ETF flows: stabilization vs accelerating redemptions

• Technical: hold mid-80k weekly support or open 70-100k range

This separates meme supercycle (200k parabolic) from structural supercycle (higher floors, macro pauses). Thesis survives with more friction than expected.